The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 3.

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus infection disease burden - volume 3.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995).

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 3.

Detailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden.

Laboratory-confirmed invasive meningococcal disease: effect of the Hajj vaccination policy, Saudi Arabia, 1995 to 2011.

Saudi Arabia (SA) experienced two large invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) outbreaks during the 2000 and 2001 Hajj pilgrimages. In 2002, polysaccharide quadrivalent ACWY vaccines became mandatory for Mecca and Medina pilgrims/residents older than two years. This study aimed to analyse IMD surveillance data among citizens, residents and pilgrims in SA from 1995 to 2011, focusing on changes before and after the new vaccination policy. For all laboratory-confirmed IMD cases in the national surveillance database from 1995 to 2011, serogroup and age were retrieved. The cases' seasonal distribution as well as the case fatality ratios (CFR) were obtained. For Saudi citizens/residents and Hajj pilgrims, annual rates were calculated using mid-year population estimates. The Student's t-test was used to compare means between the pre-epidemic (1995-1999) and post-epidemic (2002-2011) periods, excluding outbreak years. From 1995 to 2011, laboratories notified 1,103 cases. Between the pre- and post-epidemic periods, mean annual IMD rates decreased from 0.20 (standard deviation (SD): 0.1) to 0.06 cases/100,000 (SD: 0.06; p=0.02), mean numbers of Hajj-related cases from 13 (SD: 9.3) to 2 cases/year (SD: 2.3; p=0.02) and the mean age from 31 (SD: 1.3) to 18 years (SD: 1.4; p<0.01). The CFR in Saudi citizens (10.4) was lower than among foreign pilgrims (28.9) and decreased from 19.3% (SD: 1.8) in the pre-epidemic to 11.4% (SD: 7.0; p=0.04) in the post-epidemic phase. The decrease of annual IMD rates, CFR and Hajj-related cases between the pre- and post- vaccine era suggests a possible positive effect of the mandatory ACWY vaccination for pilgrims/residents in Mecca and Medina. Regular surveillance with an annual data analysis is necessary to monitor trends and circulating serotypes and to implement appropriate public health measures to avoid new IMD epidemics during upcoming Hajj seasons.

Saudi Arabian expatriate worker fitness-screening programme: a review of 14 years of data.

Expatriate workers must be medically examined in their country of origin at accredited centres prior to their arrival in any Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country and are reexamined when they enter the country. This review investigated the epidemiological profile of registered expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia who were found medically unfit to work. A descriptive analysis was performed on 4,272,480 records of a Ministry of Health database from 1997 to 2010. The greatest proportion of workers was from Indonesia (34.3%). The total proportion of unfit expatriate workers was low (0.71%). The highest rate of unfitness was among workers from Ethiopia (4.06%), followed by Somalia (2.41%). Hepatitis B infection was the most common cause (57.5%), followed by noncommunicable diseases (21.2%) and hepatitis C infection (17.4%). This review suggests that the total number of workers registered in the Saudi Ministry of Health was underestimated, and the rate of unfit workers was lower than for other GCC countries, suggesting that standards and quality assurance in Saudi laboratories require revision.

Saudi Arabian expatriate worker fitness-screening programme: a review of 14 years of data

Expatriate workers must be medically examined in their country of origin at accredited centres prior to their arrival in any Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] country and are reexamined when they enter the country. This review investigated the epidemiological profile of registered expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia who were found medically unfit to work. A descriptive analysis was performed on 4 272 480 records of a Ministry of Health database from 1997 to 2010. The greatest proportion of workers was from Indonesia [34.3%]. The total proportion of unfit expatriate workers was low [0.71%]. The highest rate of unfitness was among workers from Ethiopia [4.06%], followed by Somalia [2.41%]. Hepatitis B infection was the most common cause [57.5%], followed by noncommunicable diseases [21.2%] and hepatitis C infection [17.4%]. This review suggests that the total number of workers registered in the Saudi Ministry of Health was underestimated, and the rate of unfit workers was lower than for other GCC countries, suggesting that standards and quality assurance in Saudi laboratories require revision